An accounting-based view of Shamal Az-Zour’s IPO, weighing debt, revenues, profits, valuation, and the debate over related fatwas.
Fatwas varied and differed regarding its subscription, ranging from prohibiting investment in it, to permitting it, to declaring it obligatory. This left society circulating arguments refuting each fatwa, engaging in fruitless debates in which it had neither stake nor gain. How much discussion you have stirred, “Shamal Az-Zour Al-Oula Power and Water Company”!
The argument of the first fatwa is summarized in the company’s high ratio of “interest-bearing” debt, which means that investing in this subscription is prohibited. This argument carries an implicit meaning: that such investment would be permissible if those debts were “non-interest-bearing.” By non-interest-bearing here, we mean financing instruments offered by banks operating under what is known as “Islamic finance,” not benevolent loans.
If our insight into the nature of the financial system is weak, this fatwa may appear logical. Such logic was relatively valid before 1971, when the link between currency and gold was abolished, transforming money from “commodity currency” into “fiat currency.” This played a central role in affecting the monetary basis of circulating currencies. Scarcity and preservation of value — the foundation of that basis — do not exist in fiat money as they did in commodity money. Inflation and deflation, central bank interest rates, and the laws governing the contraction and expansion of the money supply all affect the value of currency, regardless of the financing instruments used and wherever banknotes are deposited, even in the absence of any relationship between bank funds and the central bank. Accordingly, this — logically speaking — does not permit what are known as conventional interest-based banks; rather, it would prohibit what are known as Islamic banks as well.
Without entering into the fatwa of permissibility, the third fatwa analyzes the company’s loans rationally in comparison with their counterparts. It holds that the impermissibility of loan interest does not invalidate the original contract itself if the underlying business is permissible and directed toward permissible purposes, so long as there is an effort to reduce that interest and the consequences of the interest remain less significant than the consequences of the underlying business. As for investment, the fatwa views it as obligatory because the company is concerned with managing matters tied to the nation’s infrastructure in a way that protects it from those who lack loyalty to this homeland. It further adds that the company’s board of directors must strive to reduce the interest on those loans.
The claim of “obligation” is the most controversial matter. Although it arises from the desire to counter interest-based gains and prevent exploitation, its foundation lies outside sound logic. People differ in temperament and custom, character and conduct, love and aversion, knowledge and effort, energy and work. It is not possible to assume the absence of such differences, or the presence of absolute loyalty, merely because they comply with a fatwa; nor can the opposite be assumed if they do not comply. The corruption found in some religious institutions offers a clear example.
My fellow citizen, what should govern your decision to invest in this subscription is the accounting return behind it. After reviewing the company’s financial statements from 2015 to 2018, we found that:
First: despite the high ratio of liabilities to assets — amounting to 93% in 2015, 92% in 2016, 89% in 2017, and 84% in 2018 — the company succeeded in reducing debt at an exponential rate, which is worthy of commendation.
Second: revenues rose at an exponential rate, representing, relative to the company’s nominal value of 110 million Kuwaiti dinars, 6% in 2015, 8% in 2016, 27% in 2017, and 41% in 2018. This was the result of planned expansion.
Third: profits also rose at an exponential rate, representing, relative to the company’s nominal value, negative 10% in 2015, 5% in 2016, 15% in 2017, and 27% in 2018. Here we observe that the rise in revenue and profit ratios is accompanied by a decline in the liabilities ratio.
Fourth: based on these readings and others, it became clear that a price of 100 fils per share is low. Accordingly, if the company’s performance continues at this level or improves, investment in this subscription would be a sound step “from an accounting perspective.”
Fifth: based on “linear regression” readings, if the company’s performance continues in this manner or improves, and considering the governance requirements imposed by listing, the share value may, “predictively,” reach after listing — under a conservative estimate — at least double its subscription price.
Have I delivered? O Allah, bear witness.