Early Retirement Is Technically Invalid!
07 Apr. 2019
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A critique of Kuwait’s Early Retirement Law debate, stressing actuarial sustainability over populism and short-term political gains.
During repeated discussions in the meetings of the National Assembly’s Financial Committee on the Early Retirement Law, the member of Parliament attempts to extract a formula acceptable to the executive authority, seeking the satisfaction of contributing to an achievement he believes will be remembered. This comes amid government cooperation and agreement on 90% of the technical views. The government side sees cooperation on this law — and allowing it to pass in its weak, “populist” form — as a fortified barrier against passing another law that would be even more “populist,” and that would leave economic and political damage upon the state and the Public Institution for Social Security. Discussing the provisions of this law in political and social forums requires examining its mechanisms, its options, and its relationship to citizens’ social insurance. But why do economic forums celebrate discussion of those mechanisms while overlooking what supports the sustainability of any entity concerned with social insurance, such as actuarial science?

Actuarial science is a blend of mathematics, statistics, finance, and risk management. It is a discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in insurance and finance for any institution seeking the continuity of mutual social insurance. It relies on previous statistical information, studies available data, and predicts future information, such as the number of employees and new retirees in coming years. Through this forecasting, it derives future costs and revenues, and their present values, using financial equations in order to reduce the risks that affect the decisions of any social insurance institution — such as the Early Retirement Law.

Accordingly, from an economic standpoint, any amendment to the details of the Early Retirement Law must be based on new actuarial studies — not merely accounting studies. And so that this complex discussion does not become unnecessarily prolonged for the general public, how can the Early Retirement Law — even if optional and accompanied by an additional deduction exceeding 2% — serve the Public Institution for Social Security if the actuarial study of 2010 already indicated the beginning of an actuarial deficit in 2067? What about forecasts of the interest rate, which is linked in one way or another to the Federal Reserve rate and which, in turn, affects the results of the equations used to derive present values from future values in such studies? And what about forecasts of the performance of the Institution’s investment sector, which affect risk levels related to its economic sustainability?

What concerns us today is the marginalization of these issues in economic forums, and the attention instead given to matters that are less objective, such as discussing administrative and financial corruption, if it exists, in order to justify passing this type of law — forgetting that such a step is nothing but a justification of that corruption, and an inevitable joining of it. What, then, of citizens’ trust in those who seek to achieve personal economic gains for them while transgressing against the broader public economic interest, leaving behind negative effects that will inevitably be borne by everyone without exception?

And what of those who ride the wave, demanding that economists refrain from opposing it in advance because of its supposed connection to administrative and financial corruption? What kind of argument is that, when those economists classify the wave itself as yet another case of economic disorder, one that attaches itself to the wave of administrative and financial corruption as a result of political decisions? Waves unite in collision, and their negative effects are cast upon the same shore.

Abdullah Al-Salloum
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Answers
Why does fiscal sustainability fail when financing is absent?
Sustainability is not secured by revenue size alone; it depends on turning resources into renewable financial capacity while controlling recurring obligations. When financing is ignored, the idea becomes a limited procedure that does not change the wider path.
How does early retirement and actuarial sustainability affect Kuwait?
Its effect appears in how costs, incentives, and resources are managed, and in Kuwait's ability to turn decisions into sustainable value. The direct context is kuwait’s Early Retirement Law debate, stressing actuarial sustainability over populism and short-term political gains.
Why does public spending fail when financing is absent?
Productive spending adds capacity or productivity, while spending that repeats obligations expands the burden without building new income. When financing is ignored, the idea becomes a limited procedure that does not change the wider path.
Why does public obligations fail when financing is absent?
A state’s financial strength weakens as fixed obligations expand, because the room for reform narrows even when revenues appear large. When financing is ignored, the idea becomes a limited procedure that does not change the wider path.
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